City To Release Growth Projections

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Why is the city doing this and why is it doing it now?

What is the agenda?

This is a release from the City of Ottawa:

Residents will have an opportunity to hear about new growth projections for population, housing and jobs at an information session on Thursday, September 29. The City will also present findings contained in the recently released Ottawa Employment Land Review final report.

The session will take place in Ottawa City Hall’s Festival Boardroom, main floor, 110 Laurier Avenue West, from 6:30 to 8 p.m., with a presentation at 7 p.m. You can register online at ottawa.ca.

The growth projections cover three key indicators: population, housing and jobs:

  • Population numbers are projected by examining three causes of change – births, deaths and migration in and out of the city. The overall projection is then broken down by age and gender.
  • Projected housing requirements are based on the population projection. Housing demand is estimated by looking at each age group and examining the type of dwelling they are most inclined to occupy. The estimate also takes vacancy rates and replacement of demolitions into account.
  • Job numbers are projected based on the Statistics Canada labour force survey participation rates by age and sex. The estimate is adjusted by the number of commuters to and from surrounding communities and the unemployment rate.

The City has extended the horizon of its projections from 2031 – the timeline used in the City’s Official Plan – to 2036, to align with provincial requirements.

Employment Land Review

The presentation will also provide information about a recent review of employment lands – vacant land areas that are designated in the City’s Official Plan for such economic activities as manufacturing, warehousing and offices.

Residents will learn about the review’s final report, which recommends the city free up certain lands for other uses, and adopt a one-city perspective, where employment growth benefits the entire city regardless of where it happens.

A brief overview with highlights of the new growth projections will be ready for the next Planning Committee meeting. That meeting will take place at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, September 27 at Ottawa City Hall, Champlain Room, 110 Laurier Avenue West.

For more information on City programs and services, visit ottawa.ca or call 3-1-1 (TTY: 613-580-2401). You can also connect with us through Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

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One thought on “City To Release Growth Projections

  1. My understanding is that this is all part of the run-up to the next edition of the City’s Official Plan (OP). The OP has to be reviewed by the City on a regular cycle, I think every five years, and growth projections play a part in that rejig.
    The Employment Lands report is quite interesting. It appears that the areas reserved in the past for workplace development haven’t been taken up by developers so there are chunks of vacant or under-used land around the city. They are suggesting that many of those pieces of land have that designation removed. Two questions arise from that: what will be the new recommended use for that land and where will they relocate the employment areas?
    Who stands to benefit from these changes? If I own 200 acres that was designated as employment land, will it gain or lose value if it becomes zoned residential or for some other land use? On the other side of the coin, what will be the change in value of the lands they intend to designate as employment lands in the future? That leads to the question of who has been pushing, visibly or behind the scenes for these changes?
    What other planning processes are impacted by changing these designations, i.e. transit, education, roads, etc?
    Similar questions will flow from the population growth projections. If growth drops, then we don’t need as many new homes, schools, roads, shopping centres and so on or they may be needed in different areas of the city. If the changes are attributed to certain demographic groups, such as seniors or children as opposed to working age adults, that also affects the type of development that will take place between now and 2036. For example, when fewer children and more seniors are anticipated, developers will look at building smaller housing units geared to singles and couples instead of families.
    Looking at where growth is expected will also influence decisions like where LRT expansion should go and how quickly it should get there.

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