Ottawa-Vanier Vote Tells Us What?



So what did we learn from the results of the Ottawa-Vanier byelection?

We discovered that the provincial Liberals can win one of their most secure ridings. Some people thought that wouldn’t happen. It did.

So that shows the Liberals are not in desperate shape now. Had they lost, look out. However Premier Kathleen Wynne should not be out looking for corporate directorships.

We also know that Nathalie Des Rosiers beat a very good candidate in Tory Andre Marin, the former provincial ombudsman. Lawyer extraordinaire Des Rosiers herself is a very qualified candidate.

So what does this all mean?

Pundits are saying the Liberals are unpopular but then polling has been so bad in recent years it’s very hard to know.

We can conclude that the Liberals can win in a stronghold so they still have some resilence. But that’s about all we really know from this.

There’s very little to learn. The Grits can win a very secure stronghold.

Now if Marin had won, it would have shown extreme Liberal weakness. That didn’t happen.

So to the best of anyone’s knowledge, Ottawa-Vanier was business as usual. Don’t be surprised if the whole province is like that. So any other conclusions would be very inconclusive.



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4 thoughts on “Ottawa-Vanier Vote Tells Us What?

  1. Not being privy to the following information I ask:

    1) what percentage of voters actually voted?

    2) what percentage voted for each candidate?

    This information is more telling than how the riding went and is a better bellweather of the state of affairs in a stronghold.

    1. Bruce,
      In rounded numbers, approximately 30,000 of about 82,000 voted; 48.5 per cent for Des Rosiers; 30 per cent for Marin; 15 per cent for Bisson and the rest for fringe candidates.

  2. The Ontario Liberals have held this seat for the past 45 years. No one I spoke to in that riding thought that that was going to change, especially so soon after the departure of MPP Madeleine Meilleur, who was so popular in that community. Ottawa-Vanier 2016 was at no time a referendum on Premier Kathleen Wynne.

    However, the by-election in Niagara (Niagara-West Glanbrook) was an important win for the Conservatives. A 19-year-old Tory candidate, Sam Oosterhoff, won by beating the NDP (second place) and the Liberal (third place) candidates quite easily. This rookie’s win shows that Tory leader Patrick Brown is getting through to the Conservative faithful. The NDP and Liberals both ran strong candidates, but their embarrassing loss to a 19-year-old is hard to stomach.

    Were these two by-elections a draw? Frankly, I think the Tories have a lot to celebrate. Maybe a bigger question is: how will the NDP factor into the next provincial election?

    1. Sheridan,
      You need to go further back to evaluate Brown in relation to the Niagara by-election process. The ‘establishment’ candidate for the PC nomination was Rick Dykstra, current president of the Ontario PC Party and a former MP for the area. Oosterhoff out-manoeuvred the party apparatchik to take the nomination.

      This riding was formerly held by Tim Hudak, the previous leader of the party, since its creation. Hudak won more than 40 per cent of the votes cast in the last election and over 50 per cent in the two previous ones. It’s not exactly a seat likely to fall to either the Liberals or the NDP.


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