Snap Provincial Election’s A Gamble: QUOTABLE

Published 01/30/2025 · Updated 01/30/2025

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“The only people who come out ahead in a snap election are incumbents, who already have name recognition, engaged riding associations and supporter lists. Newcomers, especially last-minute newcomers, will be in a tough spot.”

Randall Denley on Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s snap election call

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford is not calling an election to fight U.S. President Donald Trump. That’s the federal government’s job.

Ford can make a TV appearance or two (and did well in a Fox interview) but the heavy-lifting will be done by the Liberal government until an election is called. Then who knows?

No, the real reason Ford is running is because he thinks he can win. The Trump excuse is embarrassing. Will people really fall for that? Ontario’s blunderbuss blasting away at a U.S. blunderbuss who doesn’t even not he’s being fired at. “Doug who? What’s he do?”

No Ford just wants to extend his mandate. He’s up against a new Liberal leader who has a bit of a profile in the Toronto area but little elsewhere and the lowest-of-low-profile NDP leader. Many of the Opposition candidates haven’t even been named yet.

Denley is right about incumbency. In municipal elections, most people can’t ID their councillor let alone who an opponent might be. Even more don’t show up to the polls. So a small cadre of people who know the councillor will probably get the incumbent elected.

Incumbency. That might even hold in a snap provincial election.

But here’s a cautionary note.

In 1990 (I know, the Dark Ages), Liberal Premier David Peterson had a majority government at Queen’s Park yet called a snap election. Peterson, very popular, called it because he thought he could extend his mandate. Ontarians called the election greed and ended Peterson’s political career. The NDP’s (then) leader Bob Rae got his party’s one kick at the can in Ontario history. Even Peterson probably had a better excuse for calling the vote than fighting Donald Trump (which was none). My god, premier … Trump won’t even know you’re fighting him.

So snap elections can backfire and that likelihood is even greater when voters must come to the frigid front door to hear from a candidate right in the middle of a Senators’ game. Or trudge to the polls in -17C weather to vote. “Who did this to me?” Doug Ford. “Hey Bonnie Crombie … how ya doin’ ?”

Denley’s quote above will probably hold given the power of incumbency. But don’t rule out an upset. Fighting Trump is a lame excuse and a winter election is not welcome.

Ken Gray

1985 - OLP-David Peterson Ad3