Liberal Support Takes Slight Tick Down: POLL

New data from the Angus Reid Institute shows the race tightening between the incumbent Liberals and the challenger Conservatives.

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This is a poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.

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For the CPC, these data represent the first glimmer of hope in several weeks, as their support ticks up ever so slightly, while Liberal support remains statistically unchanged, though down a point to 45 per cent.

However, the reasons driving this movement reveals more about the state of the campaign than topline vote intent data. The shift may be attributed to three key things.

First, the issues: concern over cost of living and inflation has been climbing since the start of the campaign, up to 56 per cent now, while worries about tariff threats and managing the Trump-Canada relationship has declined, off 12 points in the last month.

This latter issue especially has represented a stronghold of Liberal support in recent weeks. Its diminishment in the minds of Canadians opens space for voters to change their minds.

Secondly, the personal momentum of Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney – the difference between improving and worsening opinions among Canadians – has slowed to a neutral pace. Canadians are as likely to say their opinion of him has improved (33%) as worsened (31%) over the past week. In recent weeks, Carney had been generating more positive impressions. However, he still holds an advantage over CPC leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh on this metric, both of whom have negative momentum (-20, -27 respectively).

And third, a noticeable shift among some men back to the CPC. If the first weeks of the campaign were notable for the number of men willing to give the Liberals another look post-Trudeau departure, the second half may well be defined by the Conservatives’ attempts – which appear to be bearing fruit – to communicate directly to and woo back male voters. The CPC have regained the lead over the Liberals among men older than 54 (+7), while still leading among men aged 35 to 54 (+9).

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

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