Federal Election Tightens With Carney: POLL
This is a poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute:
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The Liberal leadership race is set, with five individuals vying to be the next prime minister, before likely heading into a close-to-immediate federal election campaign.
While two key debates loom for the contenders next week, many centre-left voters are already keen to back one candidate in particular.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney surging as the hypothetical leader of the Liberals. With Carney at the head of the party, vote intention has tightened to a three-point gap between the Liberals and Conservatives, with 40 per cent supporting the latter and 37 per cent the former. This, seemingly at the cost of the New Democrats, who have lost half of their vote intention (21% to 10%) since late December. Under Carney, 42 per cent of 2021 NDP voters say they would support the Liberals, while 44 per cent would vote for the party again.
With Carney’s biggest rival in the race, former Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland as hypothetical leader, the NDP garners 16 per cent of vote intention instead of 10, and the Liberals drop from 37 per cent to 29 per cent.
This disparity is partially explained by several factors. Carney performs significantly better as Liberal leader when facing off against the other parties and leaders on top issues. He and CPC leader Pierre Poilievre are statistically tied as best to handle the economy, the cost of living, and the U.S. threat, when Canadians are asked to choose between the three major federal parties. With Freeland in place, Poilievre leads on the economy and cost of living, while Freeland and Poilievre are tied on U.S. relations.
Further, on net favourability (favourable minus unfavourable views), Carney scores a +70 among 2021 Liberal voters, a +43 among past NDP voters, and a +42 among past BQ voters. Freeland receives positive scores among all three, but at far lower levels (+18 Liberal, +4 NDP, +28 BQ).
More Key Findings:
- With Carney as hypothetical Liberal leader, vote intention in Ontario is tied (45% CPC, 44% Liberal). In Quebec, the Liberals split evenly with the Bloc Québécois (31% Liberal, 30% BQ) and lead the CPC by nine points.
- Poilievre has seen his unfavourable views rise to their highest level since taking over the party leadership. He is viewed unfavourably by 56 per cent of Canadians and favourably by 37 per cent.
- NDP leader Jagmeet Singh fares worst among all federal party leaders and hopefuls in net favourability, facing a -25 score. His favourability is positive only among young women.
- The top issues facing Canadians are reported to be the cost of living (52%), health care (39%), and relations with the United States (34%).
Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/
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Credit the Liberals for doing the smartest thing they could prior to this year’s election, generating “buzz” by holding a leadership campaign prior to the election, thereby allowing Canadians to forget about the horrible job Justin Trudeau did during his tenure, unless of course, the legalization of marijuana mattered to you. But, Mark Carney has no experience as a politician. He did note that he served as a consultant to the Liberal government, making me wonder if he’s the person who told Justin Trudeau that “the budget will balance itself”. Once again, most Canadians are stuck with a choice between the lesser of 4 somewhat-competent choices, Poilievre, Singh, Carney/Freeland (or someone else with no experience).