Liberals Hold Lead In Federal Vote: POLL

04/09/2025

It was a chaotic week across the globe and in Canada as U.S. President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly every nation in the world.

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This is a release from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute

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And while “uncertainty” seems to be the defining word of the year, certainty does appear to be growing among Liberal voters who have yet to definitively commit to their preferred choice in the ongoing federal election.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that while the Conservative Party continues to trail the Liberals in overall vote intent, it also continues to hold the advantage among committed voters. Approximately seven-in-10 CPC voters say they will not change their mind before they cast a ballot.

Herein, however, lies the importance of paying attention to both the surface story and the dynamic undercurrents of vote intention, as the Liberals are also making headway in closing the commitment gap. Three-in-five (62%) Liberal now voters say they are very committed, up from 46 per cent in early March.

Overall, 46 per cent of eligible Canadian voters say they will support their Liberal candidate, while 36 per cent say this of the CPC. The New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois are both supported by seven per cent currently.

Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal favourability rating continues to be a boon to the Liberals. More than half of Canadians (55%) view him positively, compared to 34 per cent for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The CPC leader is viewed unfavourably by 60 per cent of Canadians, while 38 per cent say the same of Carney.

More Key Findings:

The Liberal Party leads by 11 points over the CPC in British Columbia and 16 points in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Québécois 39 per cent to 30 per cent, while the CPC are chosen by 22 per cent.
Choosing between Carney and Poilievre, 50 per cent say Carney would be the better prime minister, while 28 per cent say this of the Conservative leader. 13 per cent say neither would be a good prime minister.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/