Tories Back Poilievre, Others Don’t: POLL

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has easily slain the 200-headed hydra he faced in his Battle River-Crowfoot byelection, securing his return to parliament, but it remains to be seen what awaits him in the arena of January’s national convention in Calgary.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute suggests that Poilievre still holds the support of most Conservative voters (68%) but the group of voters who could have made the difference between defeat and governing the country want a new leader. A majority (54%) of Canadians who considered voting Conservative during the campaign but ultimately decided against it want Poilievre to be voted out in January.

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This is a release from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.

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Poilievre led the party to its strongest electoral showing in more than four decades in April but did so while being viewed negatively by most Canadians (a fact perhaps acknowledged by the party when it dropped him from campaign ads aired during the final week of the election). While he is viewed by Canadians as a strong critic of the current government (73% say this), half believe him to be insincere (52%) and say they would be ashamed to call him the prime minister (50%). Both of those latter measures have increased compared to data taken by ARI in December 2023 (45%, 40% respectively).

Doubts remain among Canadians that Poilievre shares their views (35%), understands the issues that are important to them (37%), and genuinely cares about women (35%), the latter being a consistent bugaboo for the Conservative leader as he has struggled to generate positivity among women throughout his time as leader.

For now, Poilievre faces only a vote from other party members, not the electorate. Conservative voters are more likely to blame U.S. President Donald Trump (39%) and Liberal leader Mark Carney (22%) than Poilievre for the election loss (14%), which may help him come January.

More Key Findings:

• Among criticisms of the CPC campaign presented to respondents, Conservative voters are most likely to believe that the party should have pivoted once the carbon tax was off the table (61% agree). Other criticisms resonate more with those who considered voting Conservative but didn’t end up doing so on election day, including that Poilievre sounded too much like Trump (59%), the campaign was too negative (59%) and the Conservatives didn’t articulate a clear plan for the country (70%).
• Half of Canadians (48%), including a majority of women (53%) say that the Conservative party “does not represent people like them”. In 2017, two years after Harper’s defeat by Justin Trudeau, two-in-five (38%) Canadians said the same.
• Approaching half (45%) of Canadians say the Conservative party has moved more towards the fringes (despite earning its highest vote share since the 1980s). In 2017, 25 per cent said the same.
  Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

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