Tories Surge, Election Too Close To Call: POLL

While it may be one of the most cliched statements about politics, in the case of Canada’s 45^th federal election, it is also true: it will all come down to election day.

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This is a poll from the non-profit  Angus Reid Institute

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The non-profit Angus Reid Institute’s final data set before Monday, April 28 yields a number of contrasting stories, reinforcing key themes ARI has highlighted throughout the campaign: while the topline numbers tell a story on the surface, the undercurrents shape a deeper narrative.

Currently, vote intention favours the Liberal Party by four points (44%) over the Conservative Party (40%). These, with a two-point range given the margin of error on a probability sample. The Bloc Québécois are supported by seven per cent and the NDP by six.

One major takeaway is that turnout Monday will have a major impact on final party standings. While advance voters leaned heavily Liberal (46% vs 34% CPC) those who are decided or leaning and have yet to cast a ballot indicate e-day turnout is more likely to break evenly between the CPC and the Liberals (38% vote intention for each).

Also notable, the extent to which leadership – not party choice – has driven this campaign. Consider that when respondents were asked to consider how they’d vote if party, and not leader, were the deciding factor, electoral math is rearranged. Under such a scenario, the CPC would hold its vote at 40 per cent, but the Liberals would drop to just 28 per cent, and the NDP’s vote would more resemble its recent electoral performance than the single-digit horror show it appears to be facing.

All major national leaders have seen their momentum decline since the beginning of the campaign. Liberal leader Mark Carney, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre all face net negative momentum in the final days of the campaign. That said, the Liberals continue to hold an advantage in vote rich urban regions, and among women.

Given their late release – the Liberals’ the weekend of advance voting, the Conservatives’ the week after – the party platforms became somewhat of a footnote to the campaign. However, perhaps the platforms could have had more impact than the parties gave them credit for. Two-in-five (38%) of those who voted Liberal during the advance voting weekend say they would have liked to have read the Conservative platform before marking their ballot.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

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