Western Separatism A Minority: POLL

The path for a referendum on separation in Alberta was laid out this week by Premier Danielle Smith, even though she has been adamant that she does not support the movement. In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe has said his government does not support separation, but he wouldn’t stand in the way of a vote.

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This is a poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute

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As these dual referendums loom, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that support in Alberta and Saskatchewan for their respective province to leave confederation is still a minority (36% Alberta, 34% Saskatchewan). And those minorities shrink when assessing how serious the support is – few in Alberta (19%) or Saskatchewan (15%) say they would “definitely” vote to leave were a referendum to be held.

These questions of separation come as Smith presents a series of a demands for the incoming Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney, including numerous requests on oil and gas infrastructure and policy. These data find that some concessions from the Carney government could do much to quell Alberta and Saskatchewan unrest.

Majorities of those who are leaning to vote leave in a hypothetical referendum say they would be more likely to vote stay if the federal government built an east to west pipeline, removed the emissions cap on oil and gas production, and repealed Bill C-69, which requires resource projects to be assessed for environmental, health, social and economic impacts and ensure they respect Indigenous rights. Smaller, but still significant, portions of those who would “definitely” vote leave in their province’s respective referendum would also be swayed to voting stay by those concessions.

Federal Gov’t Will Get Smaller: PATTON

There is also, however, the potential for “leavers” to be galvanized even further. If B.C. said it would stand in the way of tide water access for independent Saskatchewan and Alberta, and if Quebec said it would block all future pipeline development in the province, more people say they would be likely to vote leave in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In the end, regardless of their position on a vote, approximately three-quarters in both provinces say they expect a referendum to fail.

More Key Findings:

• Among those in Alberta and Saskatchewan who would vote to leave Canada, more than seven-in-10 say they would change their mind if the CPC formed government

• Indigenous protests based on treaties are unlikely to change the views of those who want to separate. In fact, a majority of those who say they would definitely vote to separate say that major protests from Indigenous groups would make them more likely to want to leave, rather than less

• These conversations are being followed much more closely in Alberta – four-in-five following closely (79%) – than in Saskatchewan, where 58 per cent say the same

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

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