Canadians Dread Trump Presidency: POLL

This is a poll by the non-profit Angus-Reid Institute:

The U.S. presidential race was turned on its head by the Sunday news that current President Joe Biden had stopped his campaign for re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. Whether Harris is the nominee, and what that means for Democratic policy, remains to be seen.

What has been clear for months though is that whoever is the Democratic nominee will be facing down former President Donald Trump, and all the baggage he brings with him from his prior term. In Canada, the spectre of a Trump victory already has many preparing and forecasting what it could mean for this country.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a second Trump term dreaded by many Canadians. Two-in-five (38%) say a new Trump administration would be “terrible news” for Canada, while three-in-ten (28%) call it “bad”. Fewer than one-in-six believe instead it would be good or excellent.

At issue for Canadians is a wide range of factors that majorities of Canadians believe would be negatively impacted by a second Trump term. Majorities say another four years of Trump would be negative for global stability (68%), Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbour (65%), the unity of the United States (67%), the fight against climate change (67%) and Canada’s economy (60%).

Canada’s own political ecosystem has an uncertain future, as an election must be held by October 2025. A plurality of Canadians say that another four-year Trump term will make “no difference” to the likelihood of them voting CPC (38%), Liberal (42%) or NDP (47%). Among those who are not fully committed to their current choice, a Trump re-election most likely affirms it, though there are two-in-five (39%) “soft” committed NDP voters who say they would be more likely to vote for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party.

More Key Findings:

• Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is viewed as the preferred choice (32%) to Trudeau (20%) when it comes to negotiating against a new Trump administration during the 2026 renewal of USCMA, the free trade agreement that replaced NAFTA. However, as many Canadians choose neither (32%) as believe Poilievre offers the best choice (32%).
• Canadians are evenly split as to whether a potential Trump victory should accelerate Canada’s defence spending to the two per cent NATO target (50%) or not (50%). Current Conservative supporters are most likely (74%) to say Canada should “immediately and aggressively” increase defence spending if Trump is re-elected.
• Likely CPC voters are also the most likely to see positive effects of a Trump victory in November. More than two-in-five (45%) who currently support the Conservatives say Trump winning would have a positive effect on global peace, while approaching two-in-five believe America’s unity (37%) and Canada’s economy (36%) would benefit from another Trump term.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

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