How An Incumbent Loses: POTTER

By Evan Potter

The most interesting question in Ottawa’s mayoral race might not be whether Alex Lawson will become mayor. It may be whether his biggest impact on the race is bringing somebody else’s mayoralty to an end.

I suspect Conservative strategist Fred DeLorey — who is advising the Lawson campaign — would say Lawson is well-positioned to do just that.

That might sound like an odd proposition given the latest Capital Tracker poll from Liaison Strategies. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe remains the clear frontrunner at 42 per cent, ahead of Jeff Leiper at 36 per cent, Lawson at 16 per cent and Neil Saravanamuttoo at five per cent. Those are not the numbers of an incumbent staring into the abyss. Most incumbents would gladly take them.