How Poilievre Wins Or Loses The Election: POLL

This is a poll by the non-profit Angus-Reid Institute:

It has objectively been a good year for Conservative Party and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. His party has reportedly reached record levels of fundraising and now holds its largest advantage in vote intention since 2019.

But while new public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds ample reason for optimism at CPC headquarters, it also highlights potential pitfalls.

What results is a deep dive into the opportunities, and liabilities, for the opposition party and its leader as they try to cement an early and somewhat tenuous lead in vote intention.

At its largest and under the best possible circumstances, the CPC vote universe has the potential to grow to 54 per cent of the Canadian vote base. Were things to go terribly for the party however, the size of the CPC’s ballot haul could shrink to half that – just 27 per cent.

In play are so-called “soft voters”. These are Canadian adults who are either indicating they’ll vote CPC but aren’t fully locked into their vote, or those who say they’re planning to vote for either the NDP or Liberals – but could still consider the Conservatives.

The vote dynamics among these key groups reveal competing priorities and tensions. Should Poilievre and the CPC bank in one direction, they have the potential to lose swing voters. A deke in the other direction could split the bases, while some ideas are seen as safe and attractive across the spectrum.

Most attractive to these groups: a hypothetical CPC promise to block further privatization in health care. This concept is more likely to increase support for the CPC among more than three-in-five swayable Liberal (62%) and NDP (71%) voters, while also resonating with more than half of soft CPC voters (55%). Similarly, preserving current access to abortion is a winner among swayable centre-left voters and soft Conservatives.

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By contrast, Poilievre’s public commitment to defund the CBC is one of the most likely promises to rankle soft voters currently placing their vote with the Liberals or NDP. The most talked about policy in the Conservative compendium – ending the federal carbon tax – is one that plays well to lock soft CPC and soft NDP voters. Soft Liberals, however, are most likely to say they would be dissuaded from the CPC if the carbon tax was killed.

More Key Findings:
Vote intention finds the Conservatives commanding 41 per cent of the would-be electorate, compared to 24 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the New Democrats.
Just three-in-five (58%) 2021 Liberal voters currently say they will vote for the party again, the lowest number since 2021.
The word Canadians use most to describe Pierre Poilievre is “arrogant” (42%). This is chosen by one-in-five soft CPC voters (21%), half of soft Liberal voters who don’t rule out the CPC (48%), and two-in-five soft NDP voters who are also considering the opposition party (38%).
Poilievre resonates most as a “strong critic of the current government” (79% agree) but is also seen by many as “insincere” (45% agree).
One of the most likely changes to push soft Liberal voters away from the CPC is a situation where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau steps aside for a new leader. In this case, more than two-in-five (44%) say they would be less likely to consider the Conservatives.


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2 Responses

  1. Annette Goldenberg says:

    I wouldn’t that Pierre Polillievre as far as I could throw him. He appeals to be a very sneaky person. Whatever Prime Minister Trudeau says, he tries to outdo him. Just look at the expression on his face, it tells it all. I still believe that Prime Minister Trudeau is doing a good job, if he makes a mistake so? There were worse Prime Ministers than Trudeau. I still believe in him. I hope others do also.

  2. Bruce says:

    I think you are correct in saying there have been worse PM’s but there have been significantly better, with much more life experience from the onset of their term.
    Speaking of Term, this is something which should be looked into at all levels of government. Ottawa suffered from too much Watson, again a person who had little to no life experience and so too P.P. if placed into the PM job brings a lifetime of POLITICAL experience, and not much else. Anyone who supports lawlessness, (TRUMP), should be excluded from representation. Politicians should be forced to prove allegations not hide behind “rules” of council or House of Commons.

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