Not So Fast On An Ottawa Bullet Train: BENN

Published 07/15/2023 · Updated 07/15/2023

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Has anyone prepared an objective business case for high-speed rail through Ottawa?

Objective, as in not prepared by the airline industry, nor by Via Rail, or the manufacturer of high speed trains.

This past week a couple of columns were written about how Ottawa City Council needed to get its act together to get on the high-speed gravy train. Should this be a priority for a council that recently published a laundry list of immeasurable objectives?

Let’s start with a few big-picture high-speed rail concepts.

They are capital intensive. Billions of dollars to acquire rights-of-way and build a dedicated rail system. No sharing this line with a freight train or Via Rail’s conventional trains. Who is going to make that size of investment. The usual suspects: some combination or permutation of government. Why? Because if it were a viable business opportunity, we would already have a high-speed rail line, owned and operated by private, for-profit enterprise.

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High-speed trains compete with airlines for passengers making relatively short hops between major centres. At least that is what they do in Japan and a limited number of countries in Europe. Who are these passengers? Typically, the target customer understands that, at least for themselves, time is money. Put another way, they are less sensitive to the fare, and more sensitive to how much time do they spend getting from A to B and back to A. In short, the target market is the business or government traveller.

Elapsed time from the office door to the conference room door is what matters. For a typical flight from Toronto to either Ottawa or Montreal, the business person needs about 30 to 60 minutes to get from downtown to the airport. The airport being either Billy Bishop on Toronto Island or Pearson in Toronto. Another 45 to 60 minutes to clear security and board the aircraft. The push off from the jetway to the far end of the runway? Another five to 15 minutes.

So far, we are somewhere between 80 and 135 minutes to get to the point where the traveller is wheels up. About 45 minutes in the air, then another 5 to 15 taxiing to the terminal. Maybe 15 to 20 minutes to get to the curb to catch a cab, following by 30 to 60 minutes to get downtown. Total elapsed time: between 180 and 275 minutes. So somewhere between three- and four-and-a-half hours, of which less than an hour is spent in the air.

The high-speed train needs to make the same trip in less time.

Basic arithmetic tells us that the fastest elapsed time is achieved by travelling the shortest distance with the fewest stops.

Shortest distance? Between Montreal and Toronto, the two largest urban and business centres in eastern Canada, that is achieved by following the St. Lawrence River and Lake Ontario. About 540 kilometres. Note that Ottawa is an hour north of the St. Lawrence.

Fewest stops? Let’s start with where the train stations are. Downtown. Shortest travel time from the office door to the train seat. The problem is that trains cannot travel at truly high speeds through urban areas. It is a safety issue. Even on dedicated lines. Every stop along the way consumes precious travel time. Slowing the train down as it enters the urban area. Coming to a stop. Off-boarding and on-boarding a handful of passengers. Exiting the urban area at sub-optimal speed. It all adds up and before you know it, the trip is taking too long to compete with the airlines.

So, maybe a single stop in Kingston, which is about half way between Montreal and Toronto. Not because Kingston is a vital link in the Montreal-Toronto business community. Rather because that is where conventional trains can deliver or pick up passengers from geographically inconvenient locations, such as Ottawa.

So, basic arithmetic again. Travelling about 540 kilometres in three hours means an average speed of 180 kilometres per hour. The TGV in France operates at up to 320 kilometres per hour, so even after factoring in slower speeds in each of Montreal, Kingston and Toronto, the trip could be made in less than three hours.

In theory a high speed rail line could be built from Montreal, through Ottawa and on to Kingston. But that would require a lot of capital to shave maybe 30 to 45 minutes off a 90 to 120 minute conventional train trip. That’s difficult to justify.

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As for the more frequent train scenario that has been considered, perhaps. The key is that the train from Ottawa to Kingston must arrive before the connecting high-speed train arrives. Pulling into Kingston a few minutes after the bullet train has left the station is not acceptable. The weakest link in this is Via Rail’s track record of on-time arrival. As my daughter described it when she travelled by train between Toronto and Ottawa, Via Rail considers on time to be on the same day as scheduled, unless the train is expected to arrive after 10 p.m. In which case Via Rail considers the next day as on time. Think of being late as part of their corporate culture. Excuses, if offered at all, are given in monotone chants, like the Via Rail agent is in some yoga trance.

In short, while a high-speed rail line between Montreal and Toronto might make business sense, it is virtually impossible to see how an extra hour spent on a side trip through Ottawa makes sense. But it would be interesting to hear other arguments.

Ron Benn, a finance executive, has been a member of the Centrepointe Community Association for the better part of three decades.